Ukrainian economy grows nearly 20% – government

Spending has increased as consumers adjust to the military conflict

Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) saw a sharp increase of 19.5% from April through June compared to the same period last year, according to the latest data from the State Statistics Service.

The significant surge – the highest on record – has been attributed to the low base effect following the steep drop that occurred shortly after the beginning of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

The country’s economy contracted by 10% between January and March 2023. In the second quarter of last year, its GDP experienced a large decline of 37.2%. The rate of decline totalled some 30% in the second half of 2022.

Apart from the low base effect, its GDP was also spurred by a robust increase in domestic consumption.

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“People are getting used to it,” Olena Bilan, chief economist at Kiev-based investment bank Dragon Capital, told Bloomberg. “Life goes on and, amid the troubles, one wants to enjoy oneself by making a purchase or taking a vacation.”

The National Bank of Ukraine expects the economy to further increase by 2.9% by the end of the year. This projection will be revised in October.

The regulator’s outlook is crucial for payments on Ukraine’s GDP warrants that mature in 2041, as these are linked to the nation’s economic performance.

Kiev has to pay on the securities if annual output tops 3%, though the country’s authorities are seeking to overhaul its international debt in 2024, following a two-year standstill period imposed in August 2022 due to the military conflict.

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