The country’s first formal three-party coalition will test Christopher Luxon’s promise of ‘strong and stable’ government – and the minor parties’ patience if things don’t go their way.

National and ACT will need to get past their animosity towards NZ First, and its mercurial leader Winston Peters, if the right wing coalition is to have any hope of forming a government.

Ahead of Friday’s final election results, the most likely outcome is National and ACT will need to add NZ First to form a right-wing coalition government. These are the results and seats to watch.

The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.

New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.

With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.

The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.

The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.

New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.