While Māori have seen a steady increase in representation in parliament since the beginning of MMP, other ethnic minorities have experienced uneven growth. The new parliament will see a step back.

The final outcome of the general election may not be known for two weeks. But one thing is clear: the country has resoundingly rejected the government that led it through the pandemic.

New Zealand has swung decisively back to the right at the 2023 general election. With official results pending, it seems National and ACT can still form a government without the help of NZ First.

With two days of the campaign left, what had earlier seemed like a relatively predictable election has narrowed considerably, with several variables potentially influencing the outcome.

The final days of the campaign have seen both major parties warn of instability if the other wins. But behind the jockeying for power, other forces are shaping the future of New Zealand politics.

The latest political opinion polls confirm the rightward trend since mid-year. But with NZ First on the rise, the shape of the next government remains unpredictable.

The Conversation’s poll-watcher breaks down the party support trend since March – which has all been surging one way, despite some variation between pollsters.

New Zealand’s proportional electoral system makes coalition governments all but inevitable. Ahead of the October 14 election, the jockeying for power is all on the right.