Labor looks set for a resounding defeat in Queensland. But the state’s elections have long thrown up surprises

On Saturday October 26, Queensland Premier Steven Miles’ Labor is vying for a fourth consecutive term in government, up against David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party (LNP).

Although Labor won the previous election in 2020 comfortably, opinion polls in the lead up to this election have consistently pointed to an LNP win.

Recent Queensland history shows voters can produce dramatic election results, such as the 2012 wipeout of Labor, and its equally dramatic return to government in 2015. With no upper house to provide a check on government power, whoever wins will likely have a relatively free hand to enact their policy agenda.

A continuing trend of increased early voting means many Queenslanders have already made their judgement. But what have been the big issues dominating the campaign, and what priorities will the next government be working toward?

The usual suspects

The big issues of concern to voters in Queensland are likely familiar to people in other states:

• cost of living

• housing

• crime

• health

• to a lesser extent, economic management.

However, the two main parties have different emphases and approaches.

A campaign on crime and crises

The LNP is focused on attacking Labor’s record. Crisafulli has largely tried to keep the party firmly on-message, highlighting what they describe as “crises” in housing, youth crime, cost of living, health and government integrity for at least the last year.

The extent of youth crime, what causes it and what solves it are a matter of debate.

But the LNP has been keen to present themselves as proposing tougher solutions than their opponents. They’ve made promises to change youth sentencing laws to deter offenders under the slogan “adult crime, adult time”.

They’ve also promised to provide “tough love” to at-risk youth with mandatory re-training camps.

On other issues, they’ve been promising more efficient health services, incentives to home ownership and greater government transparency.

However, they’ve been careful to try to avoid more controversial issues and present a “small target” on economic management. Interestingly, the LNP has largely confirmed they’ll adopt many of Labor’s budgetary priorities on cost of living relief.

Despite this, a last minute emphasis on the possible reversal of legislation decriminalising abortion and voluntary assisted dying has threatened to derail their careful messaging.

Reverting to old ways, the LNP is backing an “indefinite” commitment to coal fired power plants and dumping a controversial proposed hydroelectric dam.

Crisafulli has walked back earlier support for Treaty with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

If they win government, the LNP would also likely shut down the freshly minted Truth Telling and Healing Inquiry, claiming they will focus on “practical” help for Indigenous communities instead.

They’re also promising electoral reform with a longstanding commitment to remove “corrupt” compulsory preferential voting and the reversal of laws that banned property developer donations.

Progressive balancing act

Steven Miles took over from Annastacia Palaszczuk as Labor leader and premier less than a year ago.

Labor has also been focused on using incumbency to address key issues, while trying to stake out a position as a force for progressive change.

They have warned of the potential “hidden” dangers of the LNP, pointing to unpopular cuts to the civil service last time the LNP governed.

On cost of living, they’ve given direct relief to households, with 50 cent fares for public transport, $1000 household energy rebates and promised free lunches for public school students.

They have been keen to say this is a dividend from increased royalties charged to coal mining companies.

On housing, they have continued their focus on addressing the undersupply of social and affordable housing alongside modest reforms to renters’ rights (although ruling out any caps on prices).

They’re promising a new era of state intervention to improve competition in petrol and energy retail.

On crime, Labor has followed the LNP’s lead in some matters, such as investing in extra police resources. They’ve also controversially ignored the Human Rights Act to keep youth imprisoned while emphasising diversion over punishment.

Of more comfort to progressive voters, they have positioned themselves as firmly committed to keeping their abortion and voluntary assisted dying legislation intact. Labor will also continue the transition to renewable energy.

Disenchantment with the major parties

Despite their efforts, or perhaps because of Crisafulli’s disciplined messaging, it doesn’t look as if voters have been swayed to keep the government. There’s a clear mood for change.

However, it should be noted this isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of Crisafulli or the LNP’s whole agenda, as opinion polls show neither is particularly popular.

After trailing for most of the campaign, Miles is still behind, but has made up a lot of ground in the past week.

Whoever wins, they will have to govern in an era when more people are disenchanted with the mainstream parties.

Among those vying to hold or increase their crossbench seats in regional Queensland are the socially conservative Katter’s Australian Party, as well as some popular local mayors running as independents.

Meanwhile, the Greens are pushing to claim more Brisbane seats.

The minor parties are campaigning hard on persistent problems in housing, cost of living, health and crime. These are all hard to solve quickly and not necessarily helped by rushed responses.

The next parliament will have to find a way to represent a state divided in public opinion between those in the city and those in regional areas across all of the key issues.

Pandanus Petter receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study public opinion polling, democratic responsiveness and the idea of 'the Fair Go' in public policy.