The cancellation of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour shows is the latest incident in a long history of concert terrorism

Taylor Swift’s Eras’ Tour concerts in Vienna, scheduled for August 8–10, have been cancelled due to a foiled terrorist plot. The events were expected to draw around 65,000 attendees each night.

Two suspects have been arrested. The main suspect is a 19-year-old Austrian citizen who is believed to have pledged allegiance to Islamic State last month. Authorities found chemical substances in his possession and noted that he had been radicalised online. The other suspect was arrested in Vienna.

Concerts have always been prime targets for terrorists seeking to inflict maximum harm. This was tragically underscored by the attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow in March. Four terrorists associated with IS carried out a coordinated attack involving mass shootings, slashing, and incendiary devices, resulting in 145 deaths and more than 551 injuries.

Concerts as terror targets

From 1996 to 2020, at least 33 cases of attempted or executed terror attacks targeting concerts have been recorded globally. These attacks have claimed an estimated 263 lives.

In nearly 70% of these cases, bombings and explosions were the primary method of attack, while firearms were used in almost 24% of the cases. The use of relatively primitive explosive devices, such as hand grenades, was reported in at least eight cases.

The most fatal terrorist attacks on concert venues in history include:

• November 13 2015, Paris: the Bataclan theatre attack by the Islamic State of Iraq resulted in 90 deaths. This incident was part of a coordinated series of attacks across Paris, which left 130 people dead in total.

• October 1 2017, Las Vegas: an alleged anti-government extremist opened fire on attendees of the Route 91 Harvest music festival from a hotel room, killing 58 people and injuring more than 850. This remains the deadliest mass shooting in modern US history.

• May 22 2017, Manchester: a suicide bomber affiliated with IS detonated an explosive device at the end of an Ariana Grande concert, killing 22 people and injuring more than 500.

Given this history, it’s not surprising Austrian authorities decided to cancel the concerts.

Avoiding tragic deja vu

The demographic targeted in the alleged terror plot in Vienna is reminiscent of the 2017 Manchester Arena attack.

The typical profile of Ariana Grande concertgoers, especially during the “Dangerous Woman Tour” when the Manchester attack occurred, included a large proportion of young fans, many of whom were teenagers or even younger children. The audience was mostly female and often included families, with parents accompanying their children.

Among the 22 people killed in Manchester, the youngest victim was an 8-year-old girl. Several other children and teenagers lost their lives. An attack at a Taylor Swift concert could have inflicted similar damage and resulted in a comparable tragedy.

One of the victims of the Manchester Arena attack was 29-year-old Martyn Hett. Martyn’s mother became a prominent advocate for counterterrorism measures in the aftermath of the attack. Her efforts and campaigning resulted in the development of “Martyn’s Law” in the UK. This law aims to improve security at public venues by mandating better preparedness and response strategies to prevent similar terror attacks.

Growing radicalisation

Australia recently raised its terror threat level, a decision reaffirmed by incidents this latest incident in Austria.

One of the likely indicators used by ASIO to assess the threat level is the global security atmosphere, including existing and potential threats identified in other parts of the world. The interconnected nature of global terrorism means threats abroad can have implications for our national security.

This is further highlighted by the recent foiled terror plots ahead of the Paris Olympics, which were largely motivated by ideological extremism and encouraged by global terrorist networks. In the months leading up to the games, French authorities reportedly thwarted at least two terror plots aimed at the Games.

In late April, a 16-year-old was arrested after announcing plans to carry out a suicide bombing. More recently, an 18-year-old was detained for allegedly plotting an attack at a soccer stadium in Saint-Etienne, inspired by Islamist ideologies.

IS, particularly its Afghanistan-based affiliate Islamic State – Khorasan Province (IS–KP), had called on its supporters to attack European sporting events this summer, including the Olympics.

ASIO Chief Mike Burgess has emphasised more young Australians are being radicalised through the internet, which he describes as a “the world’s most potent incubator of extremism”. He’s highlighted that the online ecosystem has facilitated the spread of extremist ideologies, conspiracies, and misinformation, making young people particularly vulnerable to radicalisation.

This trend has been exacerbated by global events and conflicts, which have intensified grievances and fuelled extremist views. Burgess has noted that there has been a resurgence in minors embracing violent extremism, with recent cases involving individuals as young as 14. The above examples are case in point.

What does this mean for Australians? First, it reaffirms that our intelligence agencies are ahead of these trends, closely monitoring what’s happening here and around the world. This is cause for reassurance.

It also alerts us that the elevated terror threat level is for a reason, and the call for heightened vigilance is justified. It shows Australia’s commitment to a proactive approach in safety and security, staying ahead of potential risks before they materialise and taking mitigating measures.

It’s important to remember that countering terrorism is a shared responsibility between the government, the private sector and the community. While the current terror threat level is no cause for anxiety or suspicion of one another or any communities, it is crucial to remember that community-level vigilance remains a powerful tool in the fight against terrorism.

Milad Haghani receives funding from the Australian Research Council.