‘New world order’ coming after Russia-Ukraine peace deal – Polish FM

US President-elect Donald Trump “cannot afford a catastrophic defeat” for Kiev, Radoslaw Sikorski has argued

A potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine would have the same ripple effect as the 1945 Potsdam Conference, which determined the post-World War II order for decades to come, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has claimed.

In an interview with the TVN24 broadcaster on Tuesday, Sikorski offered his take on how the administration of US President-elect Donald Trump could change American policy on Ukraine and what that would mean for the rest of Europe.

The minister stated that “Potsdam-type decisions are in the air,” adding that they “could establish a new international order for decades.” He was referring to the agreement between the Soviet Union and the Western allies which paved the way for the de facto emergence of Eastern and Western blocs and the division of Germany, and which set the stage for intense Cold War rivalry.

According to Sikorski, Poland, which has been an ardent supporter of Ukraine since the outbreak of hostilities, is also preparing for a “dramatic” EU Foreign Affairs Council next week. “Massive decisions must be made, or will not be made, about whether we are ready to allocate real resources, for example frozen Russian assets, to support Ukraine,” he said.

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At the same time, the foreign minister argued that while the incoming Trump administration wants to end the conflict, it “cannot afford a catastrophic defeat for Ukraine.” To support his stance, Sikorski cited an example of the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021, noting that “the perception of defeat in Afghanistan was a burden for the [Joe] Biden administration.”

Ahead of the US presidential election, Trump repeatedly promised to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours even before being sworn into office, and media reports have suggested that the president-elect is wasting no time in shaping US policy on the matter. 

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that one of the plans under consideration would see Kiev suspend its ambitions to join NATO and freeze the conflict along the current front line. While Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has ruled out any “trade” with territories Kiev claims as its own, local media suggested that he could have little choice if the US were to pressure him into accepting a deal with Russia.

Moscow, which has made steady gains on the battlefield in recent months, has ruled out any freeze in the conflict, although it has signaled that it remains open to dialogue.