Belarus and Georgia Pivoting Toward the China-Russia Axis

The China-Russia axis is expanding into Europe, claiming Belarus and possibly Georgia.

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops are now in Europe, conducting joint exercises with the Belarus military on the Polish border. This, combined with the recent defense agreement signed between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Russian Federation, marks a strengthening of the CCP-led anti-US, anti-Western axis. This axis includes Iran and is now bolstering its ties with Russia’s ally Belarus, and potentially Georgia.

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are becoming a tightly-knit bloc that provides diplomatic support for one another and helps each heavily sanctioned member survive.

China and Russia back Iran’s military and nuclear development. Iran funds Hamas and other terrorist organizations, destabilizing the Middle East. China funds Iran and supports Moscow’s economy, while Russia supplies China with energy. North Korea relies on China for most of its economic support and provides munitions to Russia.

Each member of this bloc has its own motivations: Xi Jinping promotes his vision of a Chinese-led world order, Vladimir Putin exploits Russian nationalism, Kim Jong Un follows the Juche philosophy of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, and Ayatollah Khamenei maintains Islamic theocracy.

However, they are all autocracies united in their opposition to the US and the West, and they are attracting other like-minded countries.

It can be argued that Belarus is part of this axis due to its deep political and military integration with Russia. Belarus is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Additionally, Minsk supports Russian actions like the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine, relies heavily on Russia economically, and participates in joint military exercises.

President Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian governance, marked by a crackdown on opposition and flawed elections, aligns Belarus with the other authoritarian, anti-Western regimes.

Russia is a key member of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which also has included Iran as a full member since 2023. In July 2024, Belarus joined as the newest full member.

Following Belarus’s ascension to the SCO, Belarus and China announced joint military exercises, deepening their defense ties. Belarus joining the SCO, being one of Russia’s primary allies and a former Soviet republic, also marks a deepening of Russia-China ties, as Moscow allows the CCP to access territory that was once under Soviet control.

This development signifies a shift in the SCO’s focus from primarily economic cooperation to an emphasis on mutual security and defense.

The axis seeks to diminish the influence of the United States while also constraining the expansion of NATO. Through the CSTO, SCO, BRICS, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the axis aims to provide alternatives to Western-dominated groups like NATO, the EU, and the G7.

Each of these Western groupings has a specific focus: the G7 is largely economic, the EU is diplomatic and economic, and NATO is mostly concerned with mutual defense. To compete, the China and Russia-led blocs, particularly the SCO, are experiencing mission creep as they try to address multiple domains.

Some analysts see Belarus joining the SCO as a signal that the organization is now a “multilateral representation of the ‘new international order’” led by China and Russia.

However, the CSTO still exists, and unless China joins the CSTO or the CSTO is dissolved, there will be conflicts and overlaps in the functions of these groupings. Furthermore, the CCP’s goal of gaining global diplomatic clout for the SCO is being undermined by the fact that several of its members are under severe sanctions. Transforming the SCO into a union of despots will not add to its credibility.

Georgia is another European nation pivoting toward Russia and away from the West. In May, young Georgians rioted against a “foreign agent law” modeled on a similar Russian law, viewing it as a shift away from the EU and democracy.

This legislation is seen as restricting freedom of speech, assembly, political affiliation, and NGO activities. Though pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili vetoed the law, parliament overrode her veto. Most young Georgians condemned this shift.

Shortly after approving the “foreign agent law,” the ruling Georgian Dream party fast-tracked the “offshore law,” which President Zurabishvili also vetoed, but parliament again overrode her veto.

This law raises concerns about facilitating corruption by hiding assets offshore, reducing transparency, and weakening democratic institutions. Critics argue it mirrors Russia’s oligarchic system, concentrating power among a few wealthy individuals.

Combined with the foreign agent law, these moves suggest an effort to curb freedoms and centralize control, highlighting the ruling party’s significant power and raising concerns about the erosion of democracy in Georgia.

Both the EU and NATO have condemned the passage of the foreign agent law. The US warned that the law would threaten democracy in Georgia, reviewing all US-Georgia cooperation and imposing visa restrictions on supporters of the law.

According to the US Department of Defense, “On May 30, the US government began a full review of all bilateral cooperation with Georgia.

The decision to postpone NOBLE PARTNER [an annual joint US-Georgia military exercise] is due to the Georgian government’s false accusations against the United States and other Western entities, alleging pressure to open a second front against Russia and involvement in coup attempts against the ruling party.” As a result, the US has indefinitely postponed its joint military exercises with Georgia.

In 2023, Georgia and China signed a strategic partnership. With Belarus now firmly within the China-Russia sphere, there is a chance that Georgia might follow suit as the axis gains influence in Europe.

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