DeSantis Free Falls to Fifth Place in New Hampshire

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once expected to pose an actual challenge to former President Donald Trump in the GOP primary, has free fallen to fifth place in CNN’s latest poll from New Hampshire.

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, had Trump with a strong lead and support from 39 percent of likely primary voters in the state.

Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is in second place with 13 percent, neoconservative darling Nikki Haley is in third with 12 percent, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is in fourth place with 11 percent, and DeSantis has dropped to 13 points since July, down to just 10 percent support.

“DeSantis’ decline stems from a sharp drop-off among moderates, from 26% backing him in July to 6% now. He fell a smaller 8 points among conservatives,” CNN reports. “The gains made by the other candidates who are now more competitive with DeSantis seem to be playing out across some clear demographic and political contours.”

Ramaswamy’s increase is concentrated more among those who are not registered Republicans (up 16 points since July with that group while holding relatively steady among registered Republicans) and among younger likely voters (he’s up 28 points among those younger than 35 and 11 points among those ages 35 to 49, while holding about even among those ages 50 or older). Christie’s growth is concentrated among those who identify as independents or Democrats but say they will vote in the GOP primary (from 23% support in July to 38% now, while among self-identified Republicans, he’s holding roughly steady at 3% support). And Haley’s increase is a bit larger among those with more formal education (up 11 points among those who’ve completed some postgraduate work and 15 points among other college graduates) and among moderates (she gained 18 points with the group, while her support among conservatives is roughly even with July).

When asked about potentially changing their votes, Trump supporters were the least willing to consider other candidates.

The poll suggests a sizable share of voters are open to changing their minds between now and the primary, which is expected to be held in January but does not yet have an official date. The share of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire who say they have definitely decided whom to support holds steady compared with the July UNH poll at 36%, with 38% saying they are leaning toward a candidate and 24% still trying to decide. Trump’s supporters are more likely to say they have made up their minds – 69% of Trump voters in the primary say they’ve definitely decided, compared with just 18% of those backing other candidates.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has six percent support and former Vice President Mike Pence has just two percent. No other candidate polled above one percent.

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