Praised for Ukrainian War Stance, Maligned for Conservative Policies, Poland Confirms Elections in October With Rightwing Party Expected To Become 3rd Deciding Force

Poland has lately become a very consequential player in European Geopolitics, simultaneously praised for its actions on the war in the Ukraine, and under European siege because of many of its policies.

The Eastern European country is building the largest European army, and has been a key NATO ally to the US, UK, and the Western powers.

Poland has stood up to EU on both the matter of the Ukrainian grain import – which they oppose to protect local farmers – and also on matters of immigration, gay rights, a controversial law trying to curb on Russian influence, and environmental policies, among many others.

For example, European Commission decided to refer Poland to the Court of Justice of the European Union for ‘prohibition of advertising of pharmacies and their activities’ (Big Pharma lovers, right?).

On the other hand, The Polish government has submitted four complaints against EU climate policies, calling them ‘authoritarian’ and pledging that it ‘will not allow Brussels’ diktat‘.

“Three new cases filed to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) relate to a ban on the registration of new internal combustion vehicles after 2035, an increase in the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction target, and a reduction of free emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).”

The climate could be well summed up by this Foreign Affairs article ‘Don’t Give Poland a Pass – Warsaw’s Support for Ukraine Should Not Obscure Its Assault on Democracy at Home’.

At the same time, Poland is the face of NATO’s Eastern front, and its performance is highly praised by the West in this regard.

Lately, Poland has been in a diplomatic row with Ukraine, calling them ‘ungrateful’ after being criticized for prohibiting cheap grain from war-torn Kiev to flood its market, in defense of Polish farmers.

Read more here:

Cracks in the Alliance: Poland and ‘Ungrateful’ Ukraine Summon Each Other’s Ambassadors in Diplomatic Row Over the Renewal of European Import Ban of Ukrainian Grain

Warsaw is also on edge with Wagner PMC fighters that relocated to Belarus, and together with Belarusian troops are staging military drills near the border, with Helicopters even briefly invading Polish airspace.

Relations are also with under stress by the influx of illegal immigrants in Belarusian border, leading them to threaten to shut the border entirely.

Read more here:

Poland Raises Alarm Over Wagner PMC Fighters Near Belarusian Border – Swalki Gap Is New Focus of European Military Conflict – Polish Opposition Say PM Morawiecki Needs Emergency to Win Next Election

In the middle of all this, president Duda has confirmed the new parliamentary elections, that will melt all these issues with perhaps more mundane but also important local issues such as the right to pick mushrooms.

Reuters reported:

“Poland will hold a parliamentary election on Oct. 15, the president said on Tuesday, a vote that will determine Warsaw’s relations with the European Union at a time when it faces rising tensions on its eastern border.

The result of the vote in the bloc’s largest eastern member is likely to influence whether there will be a thaw in relations with Brussels, which have been soured by rows over issues such as the rule of law and migration.

The election will also decide who will lead the NATO-member and key Ukrainian ally through a period of rising instability on its eastern border, amid concerns about the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus and an increase in attempts by migrants to cross the frontier illegally.

‘I decided to order these elections for Oct. 15, 2023’, President Andrzej Duda wrote on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. ‘The future of Poland is a matter for each of us! Use your rights!'”

Ruling nationalist party Law and Justice, in power since 2015, maintains a narrow lead over liberal Civic Platform.

It is unlikely that any of those will have an overall majority, making the rightwing Confederation party a potential kingmaker.

Deutsche Welle reported:

“The new shooting star on Poland’s political stage is just 36 years old. Slawomir Mentzen has a PhD in economics and owns a tax consultancy and a craft brewery.

His political program, which he calls the ‘Constitution of Freedom’, is simple: One tax rate (12%) for all, tax relief for private entrepreneurs, the abolition of obligatory pension contributions and health insurance, and fierce criticism of the European Union.

[…] Mentzen’s New Hope party is part of the alliance known as Confederation Liberty and Independence, or simply Confederation for short. Other members of the alliance include the far-right National Movement and Polish Crown parties.

The libertarian, nationalist, right-wing Confederation alliance was formed in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary election and won 11 seats in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm.

[…] This year, however, support for Confederation has been growing steadily. Some polls indicate that it has already passed the 15% mark and even overtaken other parties vying for third place in the election, such as the New Left or the alliance between the centrist Christian Democratic Poland 2050 party and agrarian Polish People’s Party.”

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