Why U.S. Recognition of Taiwan Might Not Trigger a War with China

In a recent article, I recommended that the U.S. recognize Taiwan due to its strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific and its role in keeping global shipping lanes free from PRC control.

Such recognition would send a clear message to Beijing that they do not dictate U.S. foreign policy. If the U.S. and its allies were to recognize Taiwan, it could significantly weaken China’s global influence.

Critics argue that recognition would trigger a chain reaction, ending diplomatic relations with China, causing economic upheaval, and possibly leading to war.

They fear China would bomb Taiwan, sparking World War III, and dragging the U.S. into a near-peer conflict—one far more complex than Iraq or Afghanistan. Many believe China is both willing and prepared to go to war over Taiwan.

These concerns are valid, but there is strong reason to believe recognition wouldn’t necessarily lead to war.

The U.S. remains the world’s largest economy, the leading global military power, and the second-largest nuclear power behind Russia. A war would devastate China’s economy, regardless of the outcome.

Moreover, if China attacked or nuked Taiwan, it would destroy the very prize it seeks—Taiwan itself.

Losing Taiwan would deal a significant blow to Beijing’s pride, but beyond ego, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would gain little from a war that would devastate both its own economy and Taiwan’s.

The economic fallout from such a conflict would destroy China’s trade relationships with the EU, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and other U.S. allies, leaving China globally isolated.

Historically, China has backed down from military threats when the stakes were high. Aside from its limited invasion of Vietnam in 1979, which ended in a Chinese setback, and small skirmishes with India in 2020 and 2021, the PRC has avoided direct conflict.

China has repeatedly drawn “red lines” but has consistently backed down when challenged by the U.S. Whether it was arms sales to Taiwan, U.S. freedom of navigation operations, or joint military exercises with allies like Japan, Beijing’s threats have not led to war.

Even recent incidents, such as the harassment of the Philippines and high-profile visits like Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 trip to Taiwan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s 2023 visit to China, resulted in strong rhetoric but no military action, apart from shows of force. Each time, practicality outweighed pride.

For decades, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has prioritized economic stability over direct military confrontation. A war with the U.S. would devastate China’s economy, which is already struggling with slower growth, deflation, and a faltering property market. Cutting off China from global supply chains would cripple its trade relationships with key partners like the U.S., EU, and Japan.

China’s own tariffs on Australian coal and wine in 2020 already caused domestic shortages and price spikes, revealing how vulnerable the economy is to disruptions. A war over Taiwan would destroy the very stability the CCP depends on for power.

While reclaiming Taiwan may be symbolically important to China, the practical benefits would be minimal. A war would wreck Taiwan’s infrastructure and high-tech industries, especially its semiconductor sector, and leave China with a hostile population.

Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing capabilities, critical to the global supply chain, would be decimated, making its acquisition economically worthless. China, still recovering from pandemic-related supply chain issues, would face a far worse situation if Taiwan’s tech sector were destroyed.

China’s leadership understands the consequences of being seen as a global aggressor. Invading Taiwan would not only trigger U.S. retaliation but also deepen coordination among regional allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea has already led to stronger alliances, such as AUKUS, and increased naval patrols. Starting a war would only isolate China further on the world stage.

Though national pride plays a role in China’s rhetoric, practical concerns are likely to prevail. The CCP’s legitimacy depends on economic prosperity and social stability, and a war would threaten both, weakening the Party’s grip on power.

President Xi Jinping has consistently prioritized economic growth over military confrontation. After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China’s response was vocal but fell short of military action, demonstrating that when economic stability is at stake, China opts for restraint.

If the U.S. were to recognize Taiwan and China did nothing, it would challenge the global perception of China’s power. It could break the “spell” of China’s perceived dominance, revealing that much of its power lies in the potential to act rather than a willingness to engage in military conflict.

This would weaken China’s ability to coerce other nations through fear of retaliation. By recognizing Taiwan, the U.S. would confront China’s posturing without necessarily provoking war, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. In such a scenario, the PRC might prioritize stability and economic growth over national pride.

The Chinese Communist Party has long used the One-China Policy to manipulate international relations. It is time for the U.S. to formally recognize Taiwan as the sovereign nation it is and encourage allies to do the same.

For decades, China has employed aggressive tactics, from territorial disputes with neighbors to undermining the U.S. through espionage, intellectual property theft, and hybrid warfare designed to influence American politics.

China’s economic practices, especially the exploitation of developing nations through predatory loans, further highlight its disregard for global stability.

Under Xi Jinping’s increasingly authoritarian leadership, Chinese aggression has escalated, and many experts now believe that a conflict with the U.S. may be inevitable.

Recognizing Taiwan would confront these issues head-on, forcing the world to acknowledge the growing threat posed by an authoritarian, expansionist regime.

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